Interesting post here about a 59%-41% advantage for Radiant in league matches since 6.75: Did 6.75 disrupt the balance between Radiant and Dire?
The two big relevant changes in 6.75 as described in the post were the shortened Aegis reclaim time and the realignment of the ban and pick phase. My first thought is just do a test of 6.75/76 matchmaking games. If the trend isn’t repeated then the most likely culprit is the pick/ban change.
Unfortunately I can’t do this while the API is still down, but it occurred to me that I had never done a Radiant vs Dire test on my own 6.74 sample. So I threw a remarkably quick one together and came across some interesting results.
First, we have the Radiant win rate for all games in the sample (with a > 15 minutes duration check to purge out most of the games ruined by abandons)
An interesting shift. If you account for the fact that Normal games are 4 times more common than High+Very High, the adjusted average Radiant win rate is very close to 52%, but the advantage seen in the top two brackets is considerably higher.
So what happens if we only look at games that last at least 30 minutes
Much of that Radiant advantage dissipates in longer games. Does this trend continue indefinitely? Let’s look at games that last 45 minutes or longer:
If anything, the trend away from the Radiant advantage appears to accelerate as the games go longer, so let’s go the opposite direction and look at games that are shorter than 30 minutes.
The trend continues in dramatic fashion.
So what can we take from all this?
- For starters, whatever advantage Radiant has is strongest in the laning phase. The fact that this erodes away as the games draw longer suggests that Dire has a late game advantage, which is consistent with the theory that the location of the Rosh pit favors Dire.
- But unless the game goes longer than approximately 45 minutes, Radiant’s advantage is stronger than whatever benefit the Dire get from Roshan.
- Both the Radiant early advantage and the Dire late advantage appear more significant in the High and Very High brackets.
- Valve may or may not have a built-in matchmaking advantage for either side. For example, there could be a pro-Radiant matchmaking handicap designed to compensate for the Roshan advantage. If this handicap overwhelms the Dire during laning then Rosh doesn’t matter. If it doesn’t overwhelm the Dire then the game becomes a toss-up.
No definitive conclusions can be reached other than to say that match duration appears to play a pretty significant role in Radiant vs Dire balance. Hopefully future samples and tests will be able to expand on this base.