6.77c Win Rate Shifts for Nyx, KotL, Drow, and Treant

Sample is complete, and we should be on pace to do some stuff with it early this week.  For now, just a quick look at the early effects of the 6.77c changes that went into effect last Thursday.  I cannot create sufficiently large samples from such a short stretch of time, so we’ll be using DotaBuff’s daily trends for our data source.  Numbers are going to be rounded, so check out the source if you want more exact totals.  And keep in mind that a 4 day trend if very preliminary, so grain of salt and all that.

Nyx Assassin

The relatively minor hits he took to Spiked Carapace appear to be relatively minor indeed.  His 3/22 – 3/25 win rate hovers around 54.3%, down from 55% over the entire month.  In Nyx’s case, it would be very interesting to see the effects of this change at different skill levels.  What I’ve seen suggests he performs significantly better in high level games from his already high baseline.  Regardless, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him receive further changes in 6.78.

Keeper of the Light

KotL’s Illuminate nerfs on the other hand appear to have been much more significant.  His 4 day win rate is fairly volatile, but the average is about 52.5%, down from 55.5%.  He’s still definitely a viable support, especially since Illuminate spam is likely a much less integral part of his kit at higher levels of play.

Drow Ranger

Our long national nightmare is over?  Ok, so it’s just 56% -> 53%, but at a pub level this is looking pretty good so far.  She’s still quite strong, but given her weaknesses she needs to be to have any kind of a presence in higher level play.  She might demand further tweaking in the future to try to normalize her with respect to varying skill levels a la Ursa, but for now this might actually be a solid balance point.  It’ll be interesting to see if she gets a Captain’s Mode addition soon (along with Centaur).

Treant Protector

The most interesting story of the patch, Living Armor might have gotten the final tweak it needs to deliver precisely what it promised.  Treant’s 4 day win rate is up to 51.5% from a previous monthly average of 45%.  It’s a pretty huge jump, which suggests to me that 6.77c was actually a huge boost to our dendritic friend.  If the change proves to be as significant as it appears, we could see Treant being picked up as complement to a trilane vs trilane strat, so he can be the 4th participant in the trilane from across the map.  It definitely requires some coordination, but if the Living Armor buff alone is responsible for a 6% jump at the basic public matchmaking level we might be looking at an incredibly potent spell to add to the arsenal of a competitive lineup.

3 Responses to 6.77c Win Rate Shifts for Nyx, KotL, Drow, and Treant

  1. Jimmydorry says:

    I still haven’t seen treant at all in my mmr tier yet. His changes are significant, so I feel that we are getting close to a tipping point that will make him the new “warlock”.

  2. Still a rediculous Warlock winrate. As far as rumors go, 6.78 should be around the corner. But yeah, these changes were pretty decent. =)

    • phantasmal says:

      Yeah, 6.78 should be soon and will likely be quite a bit more substantial. Warlock is in a funny place though where his win rate in crazy, but a lot of players don’t notice his impact and he still hasn’t made too big of a splash in professional games (though I haven’t really kept up too much with the past week or so). He’s sorta like Lich in that he can have a +55% win rate for forever and no one’s going to care. Granted, his current near 60% isn’t 55% so he probably won’t evade notice, but unless there’s something major in store from him, I expect his balance pass to be a relatively light one.

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