With DotaBuff appearing to be back in order, I can now offer you this chart of the biggest movers of the patch:
Overall my eyeball estimates held up pretty well. The only big exception is Elder Titan who I estimated at 1% but shows up here at 3%. My suspicion is that the 1% estimate is more accurate.
When I made my estimates, I was looking at a weeks worth of daily data. This chart uses an entire months worth of the 6.77c patch period. This is important because Elder Titan was released in the middle of 6.77c, so the chart includes the initial week of his release. Some heroes experience a win rate bump after the first couple weeks of their release because the population of people playing the hero goes from “Whoever can lock them in first” to “Mostly players who actually know how to use the hero.” Slark experienced the same kind of exaggerated boost going from 6.76->6.77.
Some other things worth mentioning. It’s entirely possible that shifts of less than a percentage point are just noise. Conversely, it’s extremely likely that shifts above two percentage points are significant, but just because a shift is significant doesn’t mean it’s uniformly significant. Because this is a sample of all games, these results are mostly from Normal games. It’s entirely possible that some shifts are understated, exaggerated, or even the reverse of what we might see in Very High games. It’ll still take some time before looking into that is possible on a wide scale, but it will be coming in the future.
Also, before anyone sees that 7% Huskar shift and declares him overpowered, keep in mind that pre-6.78 Huskar was generally pretty bad. That’s not to say that this particular iteration will survive the next patch intact. All we can say is that so far the new Huskar appears to be positively average in the context of low level pub games.
Anyway, some of you might want a unabridged version of the chart, so here you go.