Missed the start so I don’t know who had first ban.
Rattlesnake opens it up with Wisp/Treant ban. No surprise here, and this is likely to be their standard opening unless something drastic changes.
Quantic’s opening bans are Alchemist/OD. OD is a little surprising since Quantic does like the hero and it denies it from them. Alchemist is a hero that Quantic clearly respects more than Dragon Knight.
Rattlesnake grabs Dragon Knight, which isn’t surprising given their history. Quantic grabs Batrider. Most likely we’re seeing mid vs mid, but Batrider does have options. Aside from that, Rattlesnake takes Nyx Assassin with their first pick, and Quantic takes Dark Seer with their second. Neither pick is much of a commitment, but the Dark Seer pickup suggests that Quantic might be much more likely to go for a defensive trilane.
Rattlesnake bans Gyrocopter and Razor in phase 2. Gyro was an obvious ban. Razor is interesting. Apparently they also suspected the pocket Razor strat.
Quantic bans Lifestealer and something I can’t remember because the Pick/Ban phase just ended. Whoops. edit: I remember now. The other ban was Nature’s Prophet. Both are justifiable, but Rattlesnake was flexible enough to be able to pick Shadow Fiend and Weaver to accomplish the same thing.
Rattlesnake grabs Shadow Fiend, a hero they definitely like, and Chen. This basically dares Quantic to aggressive trilane.
Quantic grabs Visage, suggesting an aggressive trilane, but then takes Enchantress, potentially undermining their potential for an aggressive trilane threat (except as it turns out, not).
Rattlesnake bans Chaos Knight, which was an ok ban, and finally picks Weaver. This gives them three carry threats in each lane.
Quantic bans something and closes their draft with a Clinkz.
Straight up I don’t like Quantic’s draft. They played it safe and picked up Dark Seer way earlier than they needed to, and Rattlesnake will almost certainly outscale Quantic if the game goes late. Quantic is forced into a dangerous Dark Seer/Enchantress/Visage aggressive trilane that doesn’t have a lot of upside (and gives up first blood in a bad 3 for 1 trade). They’re essentially pinning their hopes entirely on Clinkz having a monstrous game. The one positive thing I can say is that at least they know what they’re dealing with and playing very aggressive early.
As of now it’s 4-4 in kills and almost even in gold, but Rattlesnake is in the much stronger position.
Update 1: Should also be noted that Rattlesnake has used Dragon Knight/Shadow Fiend/Chen to take 3 towers to Quantic’s 1. This mostly evens out the gold for now, but the loss of Quantic’s mid tower early is a big deal for map control.
I’m also not crazy about the Visage pickup on Quantic. It feels like a deny pick that they’re not all that comfortable using.
Now 4 towers to 2, but Rattlesnake still has control of their most important tower.
One bright point for Quantic is that they’re shutting down Weaver pretty hard, and getting a lot of kills on Shadow Fiend. Unfortunately they’re doing this in straight trades and often giving up their Clinkz to get the kills. Fortunately for them they’re getting an exp advantage off of this, which is essential for them to stay in the game.
Update 2: A disastrous Rosh contest from Quantic completely destroys their exp and gold lead. This is where you really start to see the weaknesses of Quantic’s draft. They simply don’t have very strong carries, and they don’t really have especially good teamfight potential either.
Rattlesnake is also doing a very good job buying items solely to frustrate the Clinkz. BKB on both Shadow Fiend and Dragon Knight. Linken’s on Weaver. Butterfly on Shadow Fiend. Ghost Scepter on Chen. If Clinkz can’t accomplish anything in teamfights, Quantic can’t accomplish anything in teamfights.
Update 3: And it’s over. Rattlesnake had the draft advantage in my opinion, and played patiently enough early to get their cores online.
Quantic’s big strategic mistake in my opinion was grabbing the Dark Seer early. By committing to both Dark Seer and Batrider you lock yourself into a single core lineup, and Rattlesnake punished by going tricore.
Rattlesnake’s drafting was very disciplined, and I don’t expect that they’ll need to make many adjustments. The onus will be on Quantic and Goblak to shake things up for game 2.
The one bright side for Quantic in that game is that besides the early trilane disaster (and really in spite of it) they did rotate and control the game well in the first 15 to 20 minutes. Had they not let a couple of clutch Weaver kills slip through their hands they might have been able to pull it out.