Hero Win Rates on Radiant and Dire

Received a question asking whether any heroes had a noticeable win rate advantage on either Radiant or Dire, so I threw this together.  There’s not a lot that’s terribly interesting here to me, so I’ll present it mostly without comment.  Keep in mind that the percentage differences we’re looking at here are fairly small, so most are likely well within the margin of error.


(Quick explanation on the expectation column: since Radiant has the higher win rate overall, it tends to have the higher win rate for most heroes.  I just did a quick regression to see which heroes grew the most/least.  There were a couple other ways I considered expressing this, and none of them had results that were much different than the others.)

Ursa is, unsurprisingly, the largest standout given his predilection towards Roshan.  Beyond that who knows.  I’m sure you’re all capable of coming up with your own theories, but I wouldn’t read too much into this and instantly demand Bloodseeker mid every time you’re on Radiant.

Also I looked at what heroes had the largest percentage of their games either on Radiant or Dire.


Medusa is the big mover here for Radiant ancient farming shenanigans.  On the opposite end but to a much less degree we have Beastmaster for his Dire ancient stacks.  Also of note, despite being the most successful hero on Dire, Ursa was one of the most popular Radiant picks.

But yeah, overall I’m not enthralled by any of this.  However, if you are interested and want to look through the numbers yourself you can find them here.


7 Responses to Hero Win Rates on Radiant and Dire

  1. Aeb Froman says:

    So I was thinking about something similar to this earlier. Since it is easier to gank dire mid from top rune than to gank radiant mid, what would the correlation of top runes (resulting in a lvl 1 gank mid) to radiant victories.

    However I have no clue how to find out rune information without manually watching games.

  2. Sheep ♥ says:

    Well, this stats are not filtered by bracket I suppose, so I guess this enormous win rate edge by radiant is justifiable because when you are a newbie game flows much better when you are radiant. It’s undeniable that new players play radiant with much more ease until they get used to both sides.

  3. jimmydorry says:

    Ded blog, disband phantasmal. xD

    Seriously though, the hiding of skill tiers has made it hard for me to run my benchmarks too.

    • phantasmal says:

      What I do seems unaffected by the API changes; I’m just independently unproductive.

      • jimmydorry says:

        Fair enough, it’s not like you are required to do this. Now that I think a bit harder… not sure why I asked. The skill tier changes only effected people searching for specific users.

      • phantasmal says:

        No offense was taken. This last week or so has legitimately been really bad as far as anything like progress can be concerned.

        You’re also not the first person to bring it up. A couple other people immediately assumed that the changes were going to be a problem back when the patch first came out.

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