I spent a couple days last week trying to replicate DotaMax’s VH match list under the new sans-date_max regime, and the good news is that their results appear legitimate. I was able to create a list of VH (and even High) games that exhibited a proper match duration distribution. The bad news is that I did it the day after 1v1 matchmaking was released, so I have to filter through yet another set of unwanted match types. But 1v1 is a unique environment where certain aspects of standard games happen in complete isolation. Even if you’re disinterested in the mode, it might be worth a look to see if it can tell us anything about standard 5v5 play.
The Radiant Advantage Continues
In previous samples that I’ve looked at, Radiant has always had the net advantage, and that trend continues here.
The two most likely drivers for Radiant advantage in 1v1 are the midlane topography and camera perspective. It’s important to keep in mind that this is likely only part of the puzzle, as there’s no time frame for 1v1 that enjoys a huge +55% advantage like the Radiant does in 20-30 minute games in 5v5. In this case, the slow shift towards a Dire advantage as we reach 20 minutes probably indicates that if a Radiant player hasn’t already capitalized on their advantage by that point then it’s slightly more likely that the Dire player is in the stronger position. I can’t imagine that there is anything comparable to Roshan that would provide the Dire a ‘late’ game advantage.
On a related note, Radiant vs Dire has been a hot topic as of recent, and I’ll have a bit more to say on it in a couple days over at liquiddota.com, so keep an eye out for it.
Shadow Fiend is Pretty Popular
It’s not much of a surprise, but Shadow Fiend tops the usage list with 14.36% of the players in the sample using that hero. In general, 1v1 is a pretty top heavy mode when it comes to hero usage. The top 3 most played heroes (Shadow Fiend, Invoker, and Pudge) combine to make up 26.36% of the heroes picked; the top 10 (the three from before and add Viper, Sniper, Queen of Pain, Windrunner, Puck, Templar Assassin, and Skywrath Mage) make up 47.70%. Given that hero usage drops off so rapidly, I’ve decided to focus primarily on the top 25 most-used heroes, as they’re the most likely to have a statistically significant number of matches recorded.
So with the top 25 established, I decided to put a little thing together. It’s only a proof of concept because the sample size is lacking, but maybe you’ll find it interesting:
And based off it, I bring you…
The Top 8 Heroes of Day 1 VH 1v1
Finally, after years of struggling, Broodmother has a mode to shine in. She’s put in the top win rate so far at 71% , and it’s no wonder why as she has positive matchups across the board, including absolutely brutal matchup advantages over Invoker and Pudge. The spider queen only has one negative matchup in the entire list, a 44% against Death Prophet, and even that is mitigated by the fact that I only have nine Broodmother vs Death Prophet matches on record. Queen of Pain is another tight matchup, and Shadow Shaman, Shadow Fiend, and Kunkka all put up decent fights.
Coming in at 2nd with a win rate just short of 69%, Bane is the first of the two caster specialists with no real push power in the top 8. Bane’s big call to fame is having the best recorded matchup against Shadow Fiend, which is nice when he happens to be the most likely matchup you’ll run into. Bane generally does best against right-click specialists, I assume largely due to Enfeeble, but Templar Assassin and Outworld Destroyer put up tough fights. Where Bane struggles (or at least dominates less consistently) is against top end pushers. Broodmother wrecks him, and both Shadow Shaman and Death Prophet are near even (Pugna, for whatever reason, struggles). Invoker is also a very even matchup, perhaps in part because Forge Spirits bypasses Enfeeble?
#3: Templar Assassin
Templar Assassin has positive matchups almost across the board. Bane is slightly negative at 46%, and besides that, her three bad matchups are all heroes with ways to strip away her Refraction charges, Broodmother, Viper, and Venomancer. She also has the best overall win rate against the popularity trinity of Shadow Fiend, Invoker, and Pudge.
#4: Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman is the first of the top 8 push specialist trinity. He’s one of the most consistent hero in the top 8, in that he has no dramatically bad matchups but less dominant matchups than the top 3. Broodmother and Templar Assassin are the worst, but both are just above 40%. Shadow Shaman’s best matchup is surprisingly Outworld Devourer. OD is supposed to dominate 1v1s vs Intelligence heroes, but so far he is struggling against every Int hero in the top 8.
#5: Death Prophet
Pretty similar to Shadow Shaman, but her one downside is she’s only a 50/50 matchup against Shadow Fiend, Invoker, and Pudge.
Viper is a peculiar case. Once you move past the dominating duo of Broodmother and Bane he does pretty well, but he doesn’t dominate the bottom half of the 25 most common nearly as consistently as the rest of the top 8. Outworld Devourer is an even matchup, along with Tinker and Silencer, and of the three only OD has one other matchup against the top 8 that’s better than 40%. Viper also struggles against Phantom Assassin and Pugna.
Of the push specialist trinity, Pugna is the most feast or famine. One interesting tidbit about the trinity is that they have a bit of a rock-paper-scissors thing going on. Pugna has a slight advantage against Death Prophet, Death Prophet has a slight advantage against Shadow Shaman, and Shadow Shaman has a slight advantage against Pugna. But none of these heroes are extremely popular, so this could all just be noise.
#8: Skywrath Mage
Skywrath is the hero I’m most surprised to see in the top 8, but he does pretty well against most of the 25 and has one of the top win rates against Shadow Fiend and Pudge. Unfortunately for him, all of his matches against the top 8 are 50:50 for worse, and his win rates against Broodmother, Bane, and Templar Assassin are dreadful.
Other Dark Horses and the Complete Stats
I’m sure some of you are interested in heroes that didn’t make the top 25, so here is the complete stat dump.
Some lesser played heroes to keep an eye out for
Brewmaster: Narrowly missed the top 25, and has a respectable 58.75% win rate.
Jakiro, Witch Doctor, Warlock, Disruptor: Still small sample sizes, but all 4 supports are putting up +60% win rate so far.
Earth Spirit, Leshrac, Night Stalker, Legion Commander, Enigma: 57-59%, but small samples
Lone Druid, Lina, Lich, Tusk: ~55%
And worst 1v1 hero goes to Spectre, with both the fewest games played in the sample and the worst win rate at 17.5%.