Random Ability Draft: Hero Win Rates

As a bit of a curiosity and side project, I put together the hero win rates in Random Ability Draft from my last 6.80 sample back in January.  It may be a bit outdated, but the base hero values didn’t change drastically in 6.81, and the stats come from the period before Divided We Stand’s reign of terror.  While I don’t have much interest in the mode myself, it’s an interesting look into how the basic stat values contribute to a hero’s viability independent of their abilities.

The special caveats here:

  • My RAD match collection is a byproduct of my actual match samples.  As a result it’s fairly small at just under 20,000 games total.  Mitigating this, because the hero selection is randomized, all hero samples are around 2,200 games.
  • The matches are separated into Normal, High, and Very High.  I do not know if they actually correspond to anything.  My best guess is that RAD unranked MMR but then becomes separate.  In any case, I averaged the Win % across all three brackets in an attempt to mitigate sample size issues.
  • I tried to revert the 6.81 changes in my stat charts, but I might have missed some.
  • There might be other errors.  This was new, hectic, and I’m not extremely invested in it.

Oh, and if you’re prone to getting angry about being assigned “bad” heroes in the mode, you might want to look away.


And that’s well and good, but the more interesting question is what makes a hero a good or bad platform in RAD?  Silencer far and away at the top is a relatively easy outlier due to his intelligence steal, but beyond that it gets more complicated.  One intriguing fact you might pick out by the hero shading is that Intelligence heroes tend to do the best overall in RAD.  In terms of average win rates, Intelligence heroes come in at 51.33% with Strength at 49.49% and Agility at 49.01%.

But that’s not good enough because we want to break things down by individual stats.  To approach this, I imported the hero attributes table from dota2wiki, and found the average win rate for the top, middle, and bottom third percentile of each stat group.  Or some Excel facsimile of that.  It’s at least a relatively consistent division for above and below average.  I wouldn’t rely on it for precision, but it gives us a general idea of how influential each stat appears to be on the overall win rate.  And here’s the results:


So for stats, Intelligence actually appears to be the most valuable stat in both base and scaling, but Strength Scaling is close.  This likely explains a good portion of why Intelligence heroes do best overall in the mode.  Having good overall base stats and stat growth are arguably the two strongest predictors for a strong RAD hero.  Movespeed and Base Armor are the next two strongest predictors, and ranged heroes as a whole tend to outperform melee heroes.  What’s somewhat surprising is that short cast points provided no noticeable advantage whatsoever.

But don’t take my word for it.  I made a (rather huge) graphic that includes a percentile ranking for each stat for every hero.  For example, the movespeed for all heroes fall between a minimum of 280 and max of 330.  Heroes with 280 are treated as 0%, 330 is treated as 100%, and 305 is treated as 50%.  Extreme stat outliers are kept separate.  For example, I treat the range in average level 1 avergae autoattack damage is 44 to 69.  But Treant Protector’s damage is 85, which gets treated as 174% so he doesn’t warp the listing for everyone else.  It’s also available in spreadsheet format so you can download your own copy for sorting.



2 Responses to Random Ability Draft: Hero Win Rates

  1. Reblogged this on Grumbl3dookGaming and commented:
    Another Gem from Dotametrics – this time for anyone loving the RAD.
    I’ve been away a bit recently, but there’s gonna be a ton more Dota coming soon!

  2. Milski says:

    Cast point doesn’t matter because skills all use their original cast point; unlike Rubick spell steal, spells will always take as long to cast as they originally do.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: