TI4 Articles on Faceless Void/Razor and Upper Bracket Team Profiles[Link]

July 17, 2014

Void in the Off-lane & TI4 Main Event Day1 Preview

The title of the second article is a tad vague, so here’s an example of the team profiles[TI4Profile]EG

And more will be on the way tomorrow for the four lower bracket teams, LGD, iG, Cloud 9, and Na`Vi

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TI4: Farm Dependency and the Nature of Carrying[Link]

July 11, 2014

You know the drill.


New MMR Experiment and the Life of the Solo Queue Support

June 26, 2014

A few months ago I mentioned Juice’s MMR experiment where he took a 2900 rated Dota 2 account to 5400 in under 150 games at an 85% win rate.  Now we have another, similar MMR experiment from reddit user kyuronite, that deserves mentioning for a couple reasons.

First, he wrote a description of every game with absurd detail, keeping track of the hero and role he played, the game conditions, his KDA, and a lot of other stuff.  This allows you to see his average KDA decay from over 15:1 in the 2250-2750 range down to a 6:1 at 4250-4500.

But what also makes this experiment noteworthy is that it was mostly done in Captain’s Mode and Captain’s Draft, with the experimenter only taking captain when no one will step up.  This resulted in the experimenter playing support nearly half of the time despite him believing “that [he is] better as a core or carry than a support.”

What support skeptics might point out at this is that he had the lowest win rate as a support at 74% compared to 88.5% for mid.  This on its own is fine.  No one said raising your MMR through support would necessarily be as fast as doing it through mid, just that it’s possible, and this project ought to show that boosting MMR while supporting is certainly possible.  But with that said, let’s consider the attenuating circumstances.

First, the player admits that they are weaker at support than the other role.  Second, they didn’t formally record the win rate of each role in each bracket.  If he played a larger proportion of his support games in the higher brackets, that would lower his support win rate relative to the other roles.  I don’t know whether this is the case.  It’s totally possible to go back and manually calculate it, but I don’t care to.  I just want to remind that in general this effect is important to take into consideration.  Third, these games were played in the two draft modes where captains were at least attempting to create well-formed teams.  This is going to diminish the value of a support relative to All Pick where the mere presence of any support can be the difference between having and not having any lane control, early ganking potential, or even any sort of CC.  That doesn’t mean that you should always instantly pick a support in All Pick, just that there’s value of being able to bust out a complementary pick to whatever dumb lineup the rest of your team locks.  This admittedly can be difficult when people won’t pick before gold loss.

One of the biggest differences between, say, a 3200 and a 4200 player is mere farming ability.  Playing a support admittedly makes it more difficult to exploit this advantage, so if you’re a 4200 player playing at 3200, mid or carry will likely gain you MMR more quickly.  However, if you’re 3200 rated, and you’ve been 3200 rated for a while, then you’re probably farming like a 3200 player and that inherent advantage of playing a farming hero over a support doesn’t exist.  You can improve your economy game to play a better as carry and mid, or you can improve your early game aggression to perform better as a support or offlaner.  Either are viable options, and you’ll be best off being willing to practice both as team compositions allow.


Radiant vs Dire By Duration [Link]

June 25, 2014

Available here.  It includes a new and massive stat dump of Radiant vs Dire win rates over 6 patch periods in both competitive and public play.


[TI4Quals-CN]Brewmaster: Drinks Are on You (link)

May 23, 2014

In the continuing series of the hot heroes of the International Qualifiers we have a look into Brewmaster’s meteoric surge in popularity along with his struggle to produce results.

Previous Entries in this series:

[TI4Quals-SEA]Treant Protector: Into Forest Shade

[TI4Quals-Americas]Mirana: A Wild Mirana Appears

 

Also there’s our TI4 Qualifier Hero Comparison Chart, which will be updated tonight with the playoff results from the China Qualifier.


TI Qualifiers: Hero Usage by Region[Link]

May 21, 2014

Curious about how hero preferences differ between regions?  Well, I took the Pick/Ban stats for each of the TI4 Qualifiers and compared them the overall hero stats of 6.81 before the Qualifiers began.  Come marvel at Americas love for Shadow Demon and Fiend or SEA’s complete and utter refusal to sync up with anyone.

Available Here: http://www.liquiddota.com/forum/dota-2-general/3335-ti4-quals-by-the-numbers


Hero Shifts: 6.81 After One Day [Link]

May 1, 2014

Is now available on TeamLiquid.  Archive to come in a day or two.

Since I’ve made my usual mistake of reading the comments sections, here’s some bonus ranting.

No, the sample size is not too small.  Yesterday used roughly 700k games.  Today Dotabuff is at 1.4 million.  There are other unavoidable issues that, while they do not invalidate this exercise, are still worth keeping in mind:

  1. Popularity Trends.  Keeper of the Light was used in only 5.73% of 6.80 games.  Yesterday he was used in 13.67%, the second largest net shift between patch rates after “Gonna Rush an Aghs” compatriot Lich.  He has 169,804 games played in 6.81 and 104,202 Aghanim’s Scepters built, for a Scepter completion rate of over 60%.  I do not believe these trends will hold, and when they stop holding it is likely they will alter his win rate.
  2. Unfamiliarity Driving Failure.  As I mentioned, people in general do not yet understand how Tusk’s new snowball, Zeus’ Lightning Bolt vision, or Ursa’s itemization options.  More time for knowledge to spread here will drive future shifts, not a mere increase in sample size.
  3. No Bracket/MMR information.  Most of this is from Normal games because Normal games are the largest part of the distribution.  Very High may be taking certain changes differently.

As for day-to-day noise, there’s no need to wonder about it as Dotabuff has already provided day-to-day win rate trends for every hero:

PudgeTrend

 

 

I also apparently need to blingee the heading “Small or Statistically Insignificant.”  Complaining about mentioning Keeper of the Light in regards to 6.81 patch changes might be the single dumbest reddit comment I’ve ever triggered.

Also apparently Abaddon is bugged in 6.81 and receives the new Aghanim’s buff without actually buying an Aghanim’s.  It certainly would help explain his unexpectedly high win rate increase.